{"id":146,"date":"2021-11-12T12:45:29","date_gmt":"2021-11-12T12:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/?p=146"},"modified":"2021-11-29T11:49:02","modified_gmt":"2021-11-29T11:49:02","slug":"counterfactuals-lewis-kment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/?p=146","title":{"rendered":"Counterfactuals- Lewis, D. \u2018Counterfactual Dependence and Time\u2019s Arrow\u2019. Kment, B. \u2018Counterfactuals and Explanation\u2019."},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"146\" class=\"elementor elementor-146\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-44716de elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"44716de\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ad1f5f7\" data-id=\"ad1f5f7\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-19025de elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"19025de\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.9.0 - 06-12-2022 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#818a91;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#818a91;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\"><strong>Lewis, D. \u2018Counterfactual Dependence and Time\u2019s Arrow\u2019.<\/strong><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><strong>https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1dOCO0md9b0ht9E-Eee8djwHK9Q11jBYi\/view?usp=sharing<\/strong><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><strong>Kment, B. \u2018Counterfactuals and Explanation\u2019.<\/strong><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><strong>https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/12P7sN718p0yMFgyX48P3ArxzSnT8H3Ay\/view?usp=sharing<\/strong><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>Counterfactual<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s1\"><i>conditionals<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s3\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">propositions<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">expressed<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">sentences<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">like<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">following:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">(1) If<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">I did not get a computer today to watch my favourite show, Martin Luther King would have gotten it and watched it for me(to tell me all about it later)<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">It is tricky to say exactly which grammatical features <\/span><span class=\"s2\">of<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> counterfactuals distinguish <\/span><span class=\"s2\">them<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">from other conditional constructions, but perhaps the most prominent identifying feature<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">presence<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">\u2018would\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">in<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> the consequent. <\/span><span class=\"s3\">(Very<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">roughly,<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">antecedent<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">conditional<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">the proposition<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">expressed<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">the sentence<\/span> that comes after the \u2018if\u2019, and the consequent is the proposition expressed by the other sentence,<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>so<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>that<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>in<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>\u2018if<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>A,<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>(then)<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>C\u2019<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>and<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>\u2018C<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>if<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>A\u2019,<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>A<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>is<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>antecedent<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>and<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>C<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>is<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the <span class=\"s3\">c<\/span><span class=\"s2\">onsequent. <\/span>Counterfactual<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>conditionals<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>are<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>to<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>be<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>distinguished<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>from<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><i>indicative<\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span>conditionals,<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>as <span class=\"s3\">illustrated<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">following<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">famous<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">pair:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">(2)<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">If <\/span><span class=\"s3\">Oswald<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">didn\u2019t<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">shoot<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Kennedy<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">then<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">someone<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">else<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">did.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">(3)<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">If <\/span><span class=\"s3\">Oswald<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">hadn\u2019t<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">shot<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">Kennedy<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">then<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">someone<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">else<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">have.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">There<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> is <\/span><span class=\"s1\">also<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> a <\/span><span class=\"s1\">difference<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> in <\/span><span class=\"s1\">how<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">we<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">judge<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">indicatives<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> and <\/span><span class=\"s1\">counterfactuals<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> when <\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">same<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">person<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">who<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">entertaining<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">conditional judges<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> its <\/span><span class=\"s1\">antecedent<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">be false:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">(4) If<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> I<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">am<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">not<\/span> watching my favourite show, Martin Luther King will do it for me.<\/p><p>(5) If I were not watching my favourite show, Martin Luther King would be doing it for me instead.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">This difference is perhaps even more pronounced when comparing counterfactuals to <span class=\"s2\"><i>material<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s2\">conditionals,<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> as <\/span><span class=\"s2\">material<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">conditionals<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">automatically<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">true<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">when<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">their<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">antecedents<\/span> are false, whereas the truth value of the antecedent of a counterfactual seems to have no <span class=\"s3\">bearing<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">whatsoever<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> on <\/span><span class=\"s3\">its<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">truth. <\/span>At first glance, this might sound odd: aren\u2019t the antecedents of<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>counterfactuals at least <span class=\"s10\">presumed<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s10\"><i>counter<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s4\"><i>to<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>fact<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">hence<\/span> <span class=\"s11\"><i>false<\/i>?<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">Typically,<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">but<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">not<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">always:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">(6) If<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">he<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">measles<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">he<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">exhibiting<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">precisely these <\/span><span class=\"s3\">symptoms.<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Therefore<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">he<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">has<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">measles.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">argument<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">instantiates<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">form<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s1\"><i>inference<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s4\"><i>to <\/i><\/span><span class=\"s3\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s1\"><i>best<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s1\"><i>explanation<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\">,<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">often<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">involves<\/span> (to a reasonable approximation) inferring the truth of the antecedent of a counterfactual <span class=\"s2\">from<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">truth<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> of its <\/span><span class=\"s2\">consequent.<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">And<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">since<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">we<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">often<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">predisposed<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> to <\/span><span class=\"s2\">reason<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> in this <\/span><span class=\"s4\">way<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">with<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\">counterfactuals<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s3\">whose<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><i>consequents<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\">are<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\">true,<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\">we<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\">are<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\">often<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\">comfortable<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s3\">with<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">counterfactuals<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">with<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">true<\/span> <span class=\"s6\"><i>antecedents<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\">.<\/span><\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-149 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screen-Shot-2021-11-12-at-4.56.02-AM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1192\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screen-Shot-2021-11-12-at-4.56.02-AM.png 1192w, https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screen-Shot-2021-11-12-at-4.56.02-AM-300x70.png 300w, https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screen-Shot-2021-11-12-at-4.56.02-AM-1024x241.png 1024w, https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screen-Shot-2021-11-12-at-4.56.02-AM-768x180.png 768w, https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screen-Shot-2021-11-12-at-4.56.02-AM-850x200.png 850w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1192px) 100vw, 1192px\" \/><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Lewis<\/b><\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\">In broad strokes, Lewis (1979) says that a counterfactual A &gt; C is true just in case either there are no possible worlds at which A is true, or there is a world at which both A and C <span class=\"s5\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">true<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> that is <\/span><span class=\"s5\">\u2018closer\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">to <\/span><span class=\"s5\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">actual<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">than<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">any<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">world<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> at<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">A<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> is <\/span><span class=\"s5\">true<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">C<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> is false.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\">Why not just says that A &gt; C is true just in case C is true at all the \u2018closest\u2019 A-worlds? <span class=\"s6\">Because<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">Lewis<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">wants<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> to <\/span><span class=\"s6\">allow<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">that<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> there <\/span><span class=\"s6\">might<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">never-ending<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> series <\/span><span class=\"s6\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">A-worlds such<\/span> that each A-world in the series is closer to the actual world than the last, in which case <span class=\"s6\">there<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">closest<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">A-worlds.<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">since<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> it <\/span><span class=\"s6\">will<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">easier<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">talk<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> as <\/span><span class=\"s6\">though<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">there<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">always<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">some<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">closest<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">A-worlds,<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">let\u2019s<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">just<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">do<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">that. <\/span>(A couple of other important features of Lewis\u2019 semantics for counterfactuals are that if A is true at the actual world then the actual world is the lone closest A-world to itself, and that even if there are some closest A-worlds to a given world <i>w<\/i>, there can be more than <span class=\"s5\">one<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">such<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">closest A-world.)<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s7\">A<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">pressing<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">question<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">just<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">what<\/span> <span class=\"s6\"><i>closeness<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">consists<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">in.<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">Lewis\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">answer is<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">that one<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">world<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> is<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">close<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">to <\/span><span class=\"s5\">another<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">the <\/span><span class=\"s5\">extent<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> that<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">it is<\/span> <span class=\"s5\"><i>similar<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s6\"><i> <\/i>to that<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">world.<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">Thus Lewis is thinking: A<\/span>\u00a0&gt; C is true just in case C is true in all the A-worlds that exhibit the <span class=\"s3\">most<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">overall<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">similarity<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">actual<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">world. <\/span><span class=\"s1\">But,<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> as <\/span><span class=\"s1\">Fine<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">(1975)<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">pointed<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">out,<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> this <\/span><span class=\"s1\">idea<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">seems<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">assign<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> the <\/span><span class=\"s3\">wrong<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">truth<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">values<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">to certain<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">counterf<\/span><span class=\"s1\">actuals:<\/span><\/p><p>(7) <span class=\"s1\">If <\/span><span class=\"s2\">Nixon<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">pressed<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> the <\/span><span class=\"s2\">button,<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> there <\/span><span class=\"s2\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">been<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">nuclear<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">ho<\/span><span class=\"s2\">locaust.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">counterfactual<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">strikes<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">us<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">as<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">true.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">Yet,<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">intuitively,<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">worlds<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">nuclear holocaust<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">took <\/span><span class=\"s5\">place<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> are very dissimilar <\/span><span class=\"s5\">from<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">our<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">own,<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">such<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> event occurred. <\/span><span class=\"s5\">This<\/span> suggests in turn that the most similar worlds to our own in which Nixon presses button are worlds in which, for one reason or another, a nuclear holocaust nonetheless fails to <span class=\"s2\">eventuate. Lewis\u2019 truth conditions for counterfactuals thus threaten to render (7) false, as<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">at<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> least <\/span><span class=\"s3\">some<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">most<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">similar<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">button-pressing-worlds<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">seem<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">worlds<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">which there<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">is not nuclear holocaust.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s8\"><i>Counterfactual<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>Dependence<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>Time\u2019s<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>Arrow<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">large<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">part<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">response<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">Fine\u2019s<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">challenge.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">Lewis<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">responds<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">insisting<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> that the <\/span><span class=\"s1\">standards<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">similarity<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> relevant <\/span><span class=\"s1\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">counterfactuals <\/span><span class=\"s2\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">not<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">those<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">guide<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">our<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">offhand<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">explicit<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">judgements<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> of<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">overall<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">world<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> similarity.<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">He<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">gives<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> a<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">really<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">clever<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">little<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">argument<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">for<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> this:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s11\">\u2018<\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i>Sometimes<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>pair<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s9\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s13\"><i>counterfactuals<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s9\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s13\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>following<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>form<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>seem<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>true:<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>&#8220;If<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s9\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s6\"><i>A,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>world<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>would<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>be<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>very<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>different;<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>but<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>if<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s15\"><i>A<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>B,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s12\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>world<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>would<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s12\"><i>not<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>be<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>very<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>different.&#8221;<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>Only<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s11\"><i> if<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>similarity<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>relation<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>governing<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>counterfactuals<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>disagrees<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>with<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>governing<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s12\"><i>explicit<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>judgments<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s11\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s17\"><i>what<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>&#8220;very<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s12\"><i>different&#8221;<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s17\"><i>can<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>such<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>pair<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>be<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>true<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>[given<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>idea<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>A<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>&gt;<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>C<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>true<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s9\"><i> iff<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s14\"><i>C<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>true<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>in<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>all<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>A-worlds<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>most<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>similar<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>to<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>actual<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>world]<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\">.\u2019 <\/span><span class=\"s13\">p.<\/span> <span class=\"s14\">466<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s1\">So<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> if <\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> similarity <\/span><span class=\"s1\">relation<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> governing <\/span><span class=\"s1\">counterfactuals<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> isn\u2019t <\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> intuitive <\/span><span class=\"s1\">one,<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">one<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> is<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">it?<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">One<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">proposal<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">Lewis<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">considers<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">rejects<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">\u2018Analysis<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> 1\u2019:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">(Analysis 1)<span class=\"s18\"> <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Consider a counterfactual A &gt; C where A is entirely about affairs in a <span class=\"s1\">stretch<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">time<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">T. <\/span><span class=\"s3\">Consider<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">all<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">those<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">possible <\/span><span class=\"s3\">worlds<\/span> <span class=\"s10\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s3\">such<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">that: (1)<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">A<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">true at<\/span> <span class=\"s9\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\">;<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">(2)<\/span> <span class=\"s9\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i> <\/i>is<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">exactly<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">like<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">our<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">actual <\/span><span class=\"s3\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">at<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">all<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">times<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">before<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">transition<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">period<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">beginning<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">shortly<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">before<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">T;<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">(3)<\/span> <span class=\"s9\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s1\">conforms<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">actual<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">laws<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">nature<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">at<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> all <\/span><span class=\"s1\">times<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">after<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">T;<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">(4)<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">during<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">T<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">and<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">preceding transition period, <\/span><span class=\"s20\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><i> <\/i>differs <\/span><span class=\"s7\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">more<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">from<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">our<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> actual <\/span><span class=\"s5\">world<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> than it <\/span><span class=\"s5\">must<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">permit<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">A<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">hold.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">Such<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">worlds<\/span> <span class=\"s8\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s1\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">most<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">similar<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">possible<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">A-worlds,<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">A<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">&gt;<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">C<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">is true<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">iff<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">C<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">holds<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> at<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">all <\/span><span class=\"s3\">such<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">worlds. <\/span><span class=\"s2\">Analysis <\/span><span class=\"s3\">1<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> largely guarantees <\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">asymmetry<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> of<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>counterfactual <\/span><span class=\"s1\">dependence<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> in a <\/span><span class=\"s1\">way<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> that<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">excludes<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s1\"><i>backtracking<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s1\">interpretation<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> of <\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">counterfactual.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">The<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">following counterfactual,<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">for<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">instance,<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">will<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">come<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">out<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">false<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">on<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Analysis<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">1:<\/span><\/p><p>(8) <span class=\"s1\">If I <\/span><span class=\"s2\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">jumped<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">from<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">Empire<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> State <\/span><span class=\"s2\">Building<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">then<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> (there <\/span><span class=\"s2\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">have<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> to<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">been<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">net<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">there,<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">I<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">am<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">not<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">suicidal,<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">hence)<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">I<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">not have<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">die<\/span><span class=\"s3\">d.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">Why? Because in fact there is no net that would catch me if I jumped from the building, and a world that differs no more from our own than is necessary to make it true that I <span class=\"s5\">jump<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">will<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">contain<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">net,<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">as<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">net<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">gratuitous addition.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\">said,<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\">Analysis<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>1<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\">does<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\">not<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\"><i>completely<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s1\">guarantee<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s3\">asymmetry<\/span><span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>of<\/span><span class=\"s1\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>counterfactual<\/span> dependence: it makes an exception for the immediate past. Why the exception? Because we don\u2019t want it to come out true that, e.g., if Obama had visited North Korea he would <span class=\"s1\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">travelled<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">thousands<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">of <\/span><span class=\"s1\">miles<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">instantaneously. <\/span>Despite its successes, Lewis does not like Analysis 1 for two reasons: it is insufficiently <span class=\"s1\">general<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">(what<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">about<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">e.g.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">counterfactuals<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">with <\/span><span class=\"s1\">antecedents<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">like<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">\u2018if<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">kangaroos<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">tails\u2026\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">aren\u2019t<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">about<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">specific<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">time?),<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">and<\/span><span class=\"s9\"> it <\/span><span class=\"s8\">rules<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">out<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">priori<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">cases<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">of<\/span><span class=\"s9\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s8\">time<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">travel<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">and<\/span> backward<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>causation.<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Instead,<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Lewis<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>opts<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>for<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>following<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>account<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>of<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>similarity <span class=\"s1\">relation<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">governing<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">counterfactuals.<\/span><\/p><p>(a) It is of the first importance to avoid big, widespread, diverse violations of law.<br \/>(b) It is of the second importance to maximize the spatiotemporal region throughout<br \/>which perfect match of particular fact prevails.<br \/>(c) It is of the third importance to avoid even small, localized, simple violations of law.<br \/>(d) It is of little or no importance to secure approximate similarity of particular fact, even in matters that concern us greatly.<\/p><p>Couple with an account of similarity based on (a)-(d), Lewis\u2019 theory seems like it will assign the right truth values to all the counterfactuals we have looked at so far, and will do so in a way that generalizes to kangaroo counterfactuals and which refrains from imposing asymmetry by fiat. Rather, Lewis gets asymmetry from an alleged <em>de facto feature<\/em> of our world: for any given event, few events in its past lawfully suffice for it to occur, but many events in its future lawfully suffice for it to occur. More generally, this promises to secure the general lack of counterfactual dependence of past on future.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">The closest worlds in <span class=\"s2\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">I <\/span><span class=\"s4\">didn\u2019t watch my favourite show are the worlds I still got my computer,<\/span> as they are worlds in which a small miracle results in my not watching my favourite show, and no small miracle will be enough to rid the world of all the other traces of me<span class=\"s6\"> watching my show<\/span> that<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>lawfully<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>suffice<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>for<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>me<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>to<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>have<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>watched it\u2014at<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>least<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>not<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>while <span class=\"s4\">maximizing<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">perfect<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">match<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">particular<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">fact. <\/span>But this same tactic of Lewis\u2019 seems liable to backfire. What of the following<br \/>counterfactual?<\/p><p>(9) If all future traces of me watching my favourite show had not been present, I would not <span class=\"s3\">have<\/span> watched it.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">On the intended interpretation, (9) seems false. But notice that the easiest way to get rid <span class=\"s4\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">all<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">these<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">traces<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">me<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">getting<\/span> watching my favourite show is, <span class=\"s1\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">standards<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">enshrined<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">(a)-(d), to<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">have <\/span><span class=\"s7\">a<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> small miracle <\/span><span class=\"s8\">prevent<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">me<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">from<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> watching it<\/span><span class=\"s6\">\u00a0shortly before <\/span><span class=\"s7\">I<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> watched it.<\/span> Otherwise we\u2019d either need the entire past to be different, or we\u2019d need a big miracle to eliminate all these diverse traces after I watched it. So the closest worlds in which these traces are absent are worlds in which I do not watch, and hence (9) comes out <span class=\"s2\">true<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">on<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">Lewis\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">theory.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">(Along similar lines, you might worry that we should allow for there to be events that are overdetermined by past events moreso than by future events without having been caused by future events. But if<span class=\"s3\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>counterfactual dependence suffices for causation, Lewis cannot <span class=\"s5\">accomodate<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">this. <\/span>Another problem along vaguely similar lines: what if<span class=\"s8\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>no small miracle can make the antecedent of<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>a counterfactual true? (E.g. \u2018had a motley assortment of<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>stars spread out randomly<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>across<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>space<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>exploded<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>simultaneously\u2026\u2019)<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Is<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>past<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>then<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>allowed<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>to<span class=\"s9\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>be arbitrarily different in order to make antecedent true since approximate match doesn\u2019t count for much if anything? This seems wrong. Surely the past would have been only as <span class=\"s5\">different<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">as<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">was<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">required.<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">Lewis<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">can\u2019t<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">seem<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">secure<\/span><span class=\"s7\"> this <\/span><span class=\"s5\">result.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\">A closely related problem is this: suppose that after a nuclear holocaust we say that if as <span class=\"s11\">many<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">people<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">were<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">alive<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">today<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">as <\/span><span class=\"s5\">were<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">alive <\/span><span class=\"s5\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">year<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">2000,<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">most<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">them<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">be<\/span><span class=\"s7\"> living<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">short<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">miserable<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">lives.<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">This<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">seems<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">plausible,<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">but<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> it <\/span><span class=\"s7\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">also<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">plausible<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">best<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">way<\/span><span class=\"s7\"> to<\/span> make the antecedent true consistent with (a)-(d) is with a small miracle that prevents the holocaust from ever taking place, in which case the consequent will be false, and the <span class=\"s5\">counterfactual<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">along<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">with <\/span><span class=\"s7\">it!)<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Here\u2019s<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">another<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">problem<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">faced<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">Lewis\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">theory.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">Consider:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">(10)<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">If <\/span><span class=\"s3\">Usain<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Bolt<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">broken<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> is <\/span><span class=\"s3\">leg<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">day<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">100m<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">sprint<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">final,<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">he<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">would <\/span><span class=\"s1\">still<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">won.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s3\">At<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> the <\/span><span class=\"s3\">very<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> least, this counterfactual <\/span><span class=\"s3\">is<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> dubious. <\/span><span class=\"s3\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">on<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Lewis\u2019<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> theory, (10) <\/span><span class=\"s3\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">appear<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">clearly<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">true.<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">This<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">because<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">closest<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">which<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Bolt<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">breaks<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">his<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">leg<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">on<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the <\/span><span class=\"s1\">day<\/span> of<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the final is one that maximizes match of<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>particular fact, and this requires that Bolt <span class=\"s1\">break<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">his<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">leg<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">as<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">late<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> in <\/span><span class=\"s1\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">day<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">as<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">possible,<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">hence<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">he<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">break<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">his<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">leg<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">after<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">he\u2019s<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">already<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">won<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">the<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> race.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">It also seems like despite what Lewis says, his view seems to commit him to an awful lot of counterfactual dependence of past on future in ordinary situations. This is because of<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the \u2018ramp period\u2019 he allows between the miracle and the antecedent event in order that we won\u2019t have to say that, e.g., if Obama had visited North Korea he would have travelled there instantaneously from the US. Lewis hopes that the closest possible antecedent worlds will include an assortment of different ramps so that nothing <span class=\"s3\">definite<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">past<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">can<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">said<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">depend<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">on<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">antecedent<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">event.<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">I<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">don\u2019t<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">see<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">how<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> this<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">is <\/span><span class=\"s3\">supposed<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">work.<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Lewis<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> is <\/span><span class=\"s3\">committed<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> to <\/span><span class=\"s3\">saying<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">that<\/span><span class=\"s2\"> if <\/span><span class=\"s3\">Obama<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">visited<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">North<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">Korea<\/span> at time t then he would not have been in the US at time t\u22121 second. And these events are <span class=\"s3\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">less<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">definite<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">than<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">sorts<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">events<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">typically<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">feature<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">causal<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">relationships.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">But<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> if <\/span>counterfactual dependences like these are tied to causation, Lewis commits us to a ton of <span class=\"s3\">implausible<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">backward<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">causation<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">on<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">cheap.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Kme<\/b><\/span><span class=\"s2\"><b>nt<\/b><\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\">Kment<span class=\"s3\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>is<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>primarily<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>concerned<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>to<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>resolve<span class=\"s3\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>two<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>problems<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>with<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Lewis\u2019<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>theory:<span class=\"s2\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>some differences in matters of particular fact detract from closeness, while others do not, and <span class=\"s2\">some<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">violations<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">law<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">detract<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">from<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">closeness,<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">while<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">others<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">do<\/span><span class=\"s3\"> not.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">\u2018<\/span><span class=\"s6\"><i>In<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>certain<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>world<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>w,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>Bugsy<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>has<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>two<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>indeterministic<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>fair<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>coin-tossing<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>devices,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>A<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>B.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>Each<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>device,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>once<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>activated,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i>automatically<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i>tosses<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s14\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s11\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>after<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>five<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i>minutes.<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s11\"><i>Immediately<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i>before<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s13\"><i>each<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>toss,<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s15\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s15\"><i>random<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>process<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>initiated<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>inside<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>device<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>outcome<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s6\"><i>this<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>random<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>process<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>determines<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>outcome<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>toss.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>Bugsy<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>activates<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>device<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>A.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>Five<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>minutes<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>later,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>tossed<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>lands<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>heads.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>Consider,<\/i><\/span><\/p><p class=\"p7\"><span class=\"s10\"><i>(11)<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>If<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s11\"><i>Bugsy<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>had<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>used<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>device<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>B,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>would<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>still<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>have<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>landed<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>heads.<\/i><\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s5\"><i>I<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>think,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>as<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>do<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>most<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>people<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s12\"><i>I <\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>have<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>asked,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>this<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>counterfactual<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s12\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>not<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>true.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>If<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s7\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>device<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>B<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>had<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>been<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>used,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>might<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>have<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>landed<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>heads,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>or<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i> it <\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>might<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>have<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>landed<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>tails.<\/i>\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">p.<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">272<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">Here,<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">whether<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> or not <\/span><span class=\"s3\">antecedent<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">worlds<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">match<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> the actual <\/span><span class=\"s3\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">respect<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> of <\/span><span class=\"s3\">how<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">the<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> coin<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">lands<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">seems<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">not<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">matter<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">their<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">closeness.<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">By<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">contrast:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s9\">\u2018<\/span><span class=\"s14\"><i>A<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>little<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>later<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>in<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>history<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>same<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>world<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>w,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>Bugsy<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>again<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>activates<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>one<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin-tossing<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>devices<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>then<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>offers<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>you<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>bet<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>on<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>heads<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>on<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>toss,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>but<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>you<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>decline<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>it.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>Five<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>minutes<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>later,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>tossed<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>lands<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>heads.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>Assume<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>your<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>decision<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>whether<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>to<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>accept<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>bet<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>causally<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>affects<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>some<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>goings-on<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>inside<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin-tossing<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>device:<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>your<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>decision<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>causes<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s15\"><i>a<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>certain<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>utterance<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i>yours,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>sound<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>waves<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>this<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>utterance<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>penetrate<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>walls<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>device<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>slightly<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>change<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>distribution<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>motion<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>air<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>molecules<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>inside<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s7\"><i>it.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>However,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>processes<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>inside<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>device<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>are<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>influenced<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>by<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>your<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>decision<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>do<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>not<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>in<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>turn<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>causally<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>affect<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>outcome<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s7\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s6\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>random<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>process<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>in<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>any<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>way.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>(This<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>might<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>not<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>be<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>compatible<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>with<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>laws<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s6\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>actual<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>world,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>but<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>it<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>does<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>not<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>seem<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>to<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>be<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>metaphysically<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>impossible.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>I<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>stipulate<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i> it <\/i><\/span><span class=\"s5\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>compatible<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>with<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>laws<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s7\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s9\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>world<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s13\"><i>w<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>in<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>which<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>toss<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>takes<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>place.)<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>There<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>is<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>thus<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>no<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>causal<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>connection<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>whatsoever<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>between<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>your<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>decision<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>whether<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>or<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>not<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>to<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>accept<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>bet<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>and<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>outcome<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>of<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>coin<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>toss.<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s14\"><i>Now<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>suppose<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\"><i>that<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s15\"><i>Bugsy<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>says:<\/i><\/span><\/p><p class=\"p7\"><span class=\"s10\"><i>(12)<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s5\"><i>If<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s12\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span><span class=\"s8\"><i>you<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>had<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>accepted<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s10\"><i>the<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s9\"><i>bet,<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>you<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>would<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s8\"><i>have<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i>won.<\/i><\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">Most<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">people<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">I<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">asked<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">believe<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">Bugsy<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">right.<\/span><span class=\"s16\"> I, <\/span><span class=\"s5\">too,<\/span> <span class=\"s12\">feel<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">inclined<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">agree<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">with<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">him.<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">if<\/span><span class=\"s16\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s9\">Bugsy<\/span> <span class=\"s12\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">right,<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">then<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">it<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">must<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">true<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">coin<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">still<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">landed<\/span> <span class=\"s8\">heads<\/span><span class=\"s12\"> if<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s11\">you<\/span> <span class=\"s11\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">accepted<\/span> <span class=\"s10\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">bet.<\/span> <span class=\"s9\">\u2019<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p5\">Here, whether or not the antecedent worlds match the actual world in respect of how the <span class=\"s1\">coin<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">lands<\/span> <span class=\"s1\"><i>does<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s16\">seem<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">matter<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">their closeness. <\/span><span class=\"s1\">In <\/span><span class=\"s2\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">case<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">of<\/span><span class=\"s1\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s2\">laws<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> it <\/span><span class=\"s2\">seems<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">obvious<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">sometimes<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">whether<\/span> <span class=\"s3\">or<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">not<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> actual <\/span><span class=\"s2\">laws<\/span> <span class=\"s2\">are<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">violated<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">possible <\/span><span class=\"s6\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">contributes<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">to<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> its<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">closeness,<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">at <\/span><span class=\"s6\">any<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">rate<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">this is<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">suggested<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">by<\/span> the way match of particular fact sometimes contributes to closeness, as violations of law are also mismatches in particular fact if<span class=\"s5\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the actual laws are never violated in the actual <span class=\"s4\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">(contra<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">Kment).<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">consider:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s10\">(13)<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">If <\/span><span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">Law<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">Gravitation<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">not<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">been<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">law,<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">then<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">events<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">would<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> still <\/span><span class=\"s4\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">at <\/span><span class=\"s4\">least<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">approximately<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">conformed <\/span><span class=\"s6\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s5\">it.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p3\">This seems false, despite the consequent being true in those worlds where the LOG is not <span class=\"s6\">a<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">law<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">minimise<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">violations<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">actual<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">laws. <\/span><span class=\"s7\">Kment<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">explains<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">these<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">data<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">with<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">his<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">principle<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> (C).<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p8\"><span class=\"s10\">(C)<\/span> If some fact <i>f<\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span>obtains in both of two worlds, then this similarity contributes<\/p><p class=\"p4\">to the closeness between the two worlds if and only if <i>f<\/i><i> <\/i>has the same <span class=\"s4\">explanation<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">two<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">worlds.<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">(In<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">special<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">case<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">which<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> <i>f <\/i><\/span><span class=\"s4\">has <\/span><span class=\"s6\">no<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">explanation<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">either<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">world,<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">this<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">condition<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">counts<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">as<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">vacuously<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> satisfied.) <\/span><span class=\"s6\">But<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">is <\/span><span class=\"s6\">(C)<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">true?<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">Kment<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">canvasses<\/span> <span class=\"s13\">some<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">worries.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">\u2018Suppose that we are watching an indeterministic lottery draw. The lottery was instituted ten years ago. As part of this process, one of the people in charge, call her \u2018Susie\u2019, made an important phone call. Susie has two qualitatively identical cell phones in her office, <i>A <\/i>and <i>B<\/i>. Every morning her secretary randomly chooses one of them and puts it on Susie\u2019s <span class=\"s4\">desk,<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">this<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">cell<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">phone<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">will<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">used<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">for<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> all <\/span><span class=\"s6\">phone<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">calls<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">during<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">day.<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">As<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> it <\/span><span class=\"s4\">happens, <\/span><span class=\"s6\">on<\/span> the day of the aforementioned phone call ten years ago, the secretary chose <i>A<\/i>, and this <span class=\"s4\">phone<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">was<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">used<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">for<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">phone<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> call.<\/span><span class=\"s4\"> Consider:<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p8\"><span class=\"s10\">(14)<\/span> If Susie had used <i>B<\/i><i> <\/i>rather than <i>A<\/i><i> <\/i>for the aforementioned phone call ten <span class=\"s4\">years<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">ago,<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">outcome<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> of <\/span><span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">lottery<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">draw<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">been<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">just<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the same.<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">If the antecedent had been true, then the causal history of the lottery draw would have been<span class=\"s9\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>different.<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Among<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>factors<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>that<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>figure<span class=\"s9\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>in<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>its<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><i>actual<\/i><span class=\"s11\"><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/i><\/span>causal<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>history<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>are<span class=\"s11\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>certain processes inside <i>A<\/i>. By contrast, in the antecedent-world these processes are replaced by <span class=\"s6\">ones<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">featuring<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">parts<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">of<\/span> <span class=\"s6\"><i>B<\/i><\/span><span class=\"s4\">.\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">pp. <\/span><span class=\"s6\">297-98<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s7\">Yet,<\/span> <span class=\"s13\">(14)<\/span> <span class=\"s13\">seems<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">true. Think about it this way<\/span><span class=\"s13\">: <\/span><span class=\"s4\">\u2018Suppose<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">that<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">Nixon\u2019s<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> missile <\/span><span class=\"s4\">system<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> is <\/span><span class=\"s4\">indeterministic.<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">When<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> the <\/span><span class=\"s4\">button<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">is<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">pushed,<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">there<\/span> is some chance of a nuclear explosion and some chance that the signal will fizzle out. In this case, we want to say that there might have been a nuclear explosion or the signal might have fizzled out if<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Nixon had pressed the button. Explosion-worlds and fizzling- worlds are equally close. But note that there are countless matters of<span class=\"s1\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>particular post- antecedent fact that obtain both in the chancy- fizzling world and in our world, but not in the nuclear-explosion world (e.g. all the business as usual in Moscow, London or L.A.). Moreover, it would seem that these matters of fact are produced by the same factors in <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">chancy-fizzling<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">in<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">our<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">world.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">And<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">yet,<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">since<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">with<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">chancy<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">fizzling<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> is<\/span> no closer than the world with nuclear war, the extra post-antecedent similarities in the <span class=\"s4\">chancy-fizzling<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">world<\/span> <span class=\"s7\">must<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">be<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">irrelevant<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">to<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">closeness.\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">p.<\/span> <span class=\"s1\">299<\/span><\/p><p class=\"p1\">Another way to think about the issue: \u2018Suppose that the king tosses a fair coin and it comes up heads. On the eve of the coin toss, a would-be assassin who is about to plant a bomb at the royal palace is poisoned by his enemy <i>x<\/i>. <i>x<\/i>\u2019s action is an element of<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the complete explanatory history of<span class=\"s6\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the king\u2019s <span class=\"s6\">coin<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">toss,<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">since<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">it<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">prevented<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> the <\/span><span class=\"s6\">assassin<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">from<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">killing<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">king<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">and<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">thereby<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">interfering with<\/span> the causal process that led up to the coin toss. Hence, in a world in which a different person,<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><i>y<\/i>,<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>poisons<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>assassin,<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>complete<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>explanatory<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>history<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>of<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>the<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>coin<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>toss<span class=\"s12\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>is <span class=\"s6\">different.<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">And<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">yet<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">we<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">want<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> to <\/span><span class=\"s6\">say<\/span><span class=\"s5\"> that <\/span><span class=\"s6\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">coin<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">toss<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">would<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">have<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">yielded<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">same<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">outcome<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">if<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">the<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">assassin<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">had<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">been<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">poisoned<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">by<\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><i>y<\/i><\/span><i> <\/i><span class=\"s6\">rather<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">than<\/span> <span class=\"s4\">by<\/span><span class=\"s6\"> <i>x<\/i>.\u2019<\/span> <span class=\"s6\">p. <\/span><span class=\"s4\">300<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lewis, D. \u2018Counterfactual Dependence and Time\u2019s Arrow\u2019. https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1dOCO0md9b0ht9E-Eee8djwHK9Q11jBYi\/view?usp=sharing Kment, B. \u2018Counterfactuals and Explanation\u2019. https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/12P7sN718p0yMFgyX48P3ArxzSnT8H3Ay\/view?usp=sharing Counterfactual conditionals are the propositions expressed by sentences like the following: (1) If I did not get a computer today to watch my favourite show, Martin Luther King would have gotten it and watched it for me(to tell me all about&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=146"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":233,"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146\/revisions\/233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acutechristian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}